Matthew McCall:创业者应该怎样融资？

作者:marcher 日期:19/12/2006 16:28:37

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“我不知道将去向何方，但是我在享受过程中的乐趣”
　　我在德国的一个读者发邮件问我会怎么描述融资的过程，时机，资金数额，估值还有其他？显然这是一个极其复杂的过程，不过我现在就来给一个大概的描述吧

　　从根本点入手你必须明白自信对于你的业务起什么样的作用。当你有足够的自信和乐观时，你才能取得那些陌生人的信任，才能不断地筹集到资金。在这个过程中，你对你商业模式的认识和理解是关键因素。

　　规划好步骤需要多少资金来建立自信？什么是商业中的关键里程碑？vc用的有

     1 推出你测试版的产品

      2 推出正式产品

      3 争取到第一个行业中富有盛名的客户

       4 销售额达到300到500万美元（这通常意味着你已经解决了定价问题）

　　5 销售额达到1000万美元（通常意味着你的直接销售团队卓有成效）

　　6 销售额达到2000万美元（这意味着你的渠道已经落地了）

　　7）有准确的EBITDA 收入（扣除利息、税项、折旧及摊销前盈利）

　　你预计将要花费多少资金和时间来达到这些目标？然后把每个阶段需要的金钱和时间都乘以二，这就是对你需要的大概预计。我觉得一般情况下你至少需要三轮的融资。

　　向谁融资？

　　你可以对照上面的那个阶段的表格，认清自己所处的阶段和需要的资金，然后清楚你有怎样的选择。比如100万美元以下的项目，银行贷款，客户预付，天使投资都可以解决。如果需要100到300美元，可以选择天使投资和风险投资。300万到500万美元以上，那么你就必须寻求风险投资的帮助了。通常，你会发现大家会按部就班的来，先寻找天使投资，推出测试产品或者得到第一个客户，然后再从风险投资那里募集资金。

　　如何设定估值的期望？

　　企业家常常会对自己的业务过于乐观了，这可能会导致估值期望和实际估值存在很大差异。合理的期望应该是：没有产品时期的种子投资：100到300万美元的交易前估值（公司在将外部融资额加入资产负债表前的价值）（可能最多得到200到600美元的天使投资）。

　　有测试期的产品和最初的客户：400到700万美元的交易前估值（最多到1000万美元的天使投资）

　　有300到500美元的收入：根据增长，经历等方面的不同可能会有700到1500万美元的估值1000万美元收入：估值1000到2500万美元收入2000美元以上：估值3000到6000万美元

　　VC们希望从早期投资中获得10倍左右的收益（包括公司收入在500万美元的投资），晚期投资（公司收入2000万美元以上）中获得3到5倍的收益。因此公司发展的透明度和可能的产出决定着他们对你的估值。

　　理智并用充分的时间来运作融资只有当你对所需要的资金量有一个精确估计的时候，才能说你的融资是成功的。如果估计有误，你很可能在还没有达到下一个阶段的时候就把所有的钱花光了，那么你就丧失了对整个过程的控制。这会让你的业务遭受极大的损失。因此，给自己充分的时间，假设做成一个融资项目要6个月的时间，那么就预算6到8个月来完成吧。

"I don't know where I am going, but I'm making great time"

On of my readers in Germany sent me an email the other day asking if I would describe what the funding cycle looks like...timing, amounts, valuation, etc. While there are millions of permutations of this, I'll try to give a general framework and set of principals.

Start at the End: you need to understand what self-sufficiency looks like for your business. Until you can support yourself (CF positive), you will be reliant on the kindness of strangers and will be in perpetual fundraising mode. Your knowledge of your business model is key here.

Layout the Steps: How much capital does it take to get to self-sufficiency and what are the key milestones in the business. Some that VC's use are:
1) getting your beta launched
2) getting the production version launched
3) getting your first "high profile" customer that others in the industry take notice
4) hitting $3-5M in sales (usually means you have figured out pricing)
5) hitting $10M in sales (usually means your direct sales force is working)
6) hitting $20M in sales (usually means you have channel down)
7) EBITDA positive
8) CF positive.

How much capital do you estimate it will take to hit these and when? Then double each amount and the time (law of 2). That is a rough estimate for your needs. I would say that you generally have a three round cycle at a minimum.  #1, #3, #4 and #6 are possible funding events (probably either #1, #4 and #6) or (#3, #4 and #6). We joke about companies running out of letters in the alphabet for rounds (Preferred Stock Series Y) because they have raised so often, but it is usually rare to go past F or G (6 or 7 rounds).

Determine Funding Sources: For each stage mentioned, it will be clear what options you have given the milestones hit and the amount needed. For amounts below $1M, bank debt, customer financing (prepaids), angel or venture are all possible. For amounts, $1-3M, angels and venture are possible and for amounts above $3-5M, you are dancing with the VC devil. Usually, you see bootstrapping and angels to get to beta or first customer, and either angels (if really capital efficient) or VC's from there.

Set Expectations Around Valuation: Entrepreneurs are optimists by design/necessity. Unfortunately, this often leads to huge discrepancies regarding valuation expectations. You should expect:

Pre-product VC seed rounds: $1-3M pre-$ valuation for (this bumps probably to $2-6M for angel).
Beta/Initial customer: expect $4-7M pre-$ valuation (angels as high as $10M)
Revenue $3-5M: expect $7-15M depending on growth, story, sizzle, etc
Revenue $10M: expect $10-25M same caveat
Revenue $20M+: expect $30-60M same caveat

VC's target 10x for the early stuff (including $3-5M in rev) and 3-5x for later stuff ($20M+ in revenue). So, the visibility of your growth and likely outcome will determine valuation. Can they get 5 or 10x at that valuation?

Avoid Surprises: Fundraising is only as successful as the accuracy of your capital needs estimates. In the worst case, you run out of capital either a) suddenly or b) before you have reached key milestones. In these situations, you lose all leverage in the process and it does not end well. We have CEO's who develop hives if they have less than 1 year's worth of runway. Assume it will take you 6 months to close on a round...give yourself 6-8 months to get it done.

Two's Company: The optimal situation is to get three funders to the table for your process. Assume that one of them will drop out unexpectedly which will leave you with two.  This creates a built in stalking horse/forcing mechanism. Nothing like urgency/scarcity to accelerate the process.

You are  in the risk mitigation business like an insurance company. You are only as successful as you are accurate in identifying risks that get in the way of your plan. Put buffers and contingencies in place (cost reduction or other funding sources) to address surprises. And let 'er rip...